Blind To Maddux

Two nights ago Greg Maddux won the 321st game of his career--it was his first start as a 40-year-old. He improved to 3-0 on the young season and lowered his ERA to 1.33 by surrendering only 1 run in 8 innings against the Dodgers. Almost typically, few noticed. Maddux's performance was overshadowed (it's a milestone and therefore understandable) by Pedro Martinez, who recorded his 200th career win earlier in the evening.

The next day on ESPN radio, Jayson Stark, in the middle of singing Pedro's praises, listed 6 or 7 guys whom he would consider the best pitchers of the live-ball era (post 1920's). I remember him listing Clemens, Seaver, Koufax, Gibson, and Pedro. Greg maddux wasn't on the list.

This is beyond ridiculous. Stark would point out that Pedro has the lowest ERA among active pitchers. This is true but misleading. Maddux ranks second on the list and he's 40. Let's see where Pedro's ERA stands five years from now. Pedro's lifetime ERA may be a staggering 2.73, but that is the second-lowest ERA for a pitcher at the time of his 200th win. Guess who is first? Guess who also had the lowest ERA at the time of his 300th win?

Over three years ago I sat in a Pizza Inn in Ruston, LA discussing Maddux with my dad and cousin. Maddux had 286 wins and was a free-agent, so we were guessing where he might go and how much he might be worth. I, of course, was arguing that he was worth more money than my dad and cousin did. They assumed Maddux only had a couple more years in him. I thought he might have 5 or 6. They undershot badly. I may have undershot as well. I predicted that Maddux might hang around to make a run at what is considered the all-time wins mark for the modern-era: Warren Spahn's 363. I was laughed out of the restaurant.

Maddux is 42 wins shy of that mark. Jamie Moyer (if your asking who Jamie Moyer is then your supporting my case) has won 46 games in his 40's. Why on earth should we expect Maddux to do worse than that?

Incidentally, Roger Clemens will pitch again this season. One of the main reasons he will (no one is saying this) is because if he doesn't, Maddux will easily pass him next season on the all-time wins list.